Bitcoin’s surge back towards the $50,000 mark is to the delight of many in the crypto community. One of those being popular crypto analyst PlanB who still sees his Stock-to-Flow model (S2F) in play for at least $100,000 end of the year.
In a recent appearance on the ‘What Bitcoin Did podcast’ with Peter McCormack, Plan B said that Bitcoin price developments of the past months have been an outlier and the top cryptocurrency will continue its upward move:
“It is actually the third test of the model to the downside. When I introduced the model in 2019, prices were very low, it was at the bottom of the bear market. Totally out of the bands of the S2F model. It had to go up to validate the model [which it did], maybe more so than right now.”
The analyst continued:
“I never had any doubt, I still think it will be 100,000 USD end of the year, minimum. We are at $40,000 now, so that is only a 2.5x. It can be done. I am very confident.”
PlanB then said: “$100K with Christmas!” and added “I sometimes think that $100,000 is even conservative.”
Commenting on his Stock-to-Flow model, PlanB is realistic and with his background in trading, he said that a model can only be used as long as it remains valid and has no intentions of forcefully defending his model:
“The Stock-to-Flow models is a model of lineair regression. So, it is very obvious that when that regression is no longer valid, everybody can calculate that by themselves.”
“I will be the first to admit it, because I have money on the line. It is very easy to see when it is invalidated. And of-course there are outliers. Covid last year was an outlier. The 2019 bear market was an outlier and we bounced back. And this is an outlier as well, and that is perfectly okay in a regression model what the S2F model is.”
While the podcast had been recorded earlier in the week, PlanB shared one of his Tweets of back in June when Bitcoin’s price was pressured dropping below $35K. He gave his “worst case” prediction for the months following August.
Aug > $47K https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 13, 2021
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $47,530, up 5% over the last 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap data.