Speaking to Natalie Brunell, popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo unveiled some critical factors that Bitcoin (BTC) will have to deal with to continue rising upwards and setting new records.
— Natalie ₿runell (@natbrunell) November 14, 2021
When taking one on-chain matric in consideration, the supply shock, Woo says, Bitcoin is not yet ready to take of for a new rally. He noted:
“If we were to look at where we sit in terms of what I call supply shock which… I would say the ratio of coins held by these really strong holders versus more speculative hands, we’re not at the ratios that we saw in the first and second quarter before May. We’re actually climbing up there but not at the same levels where we last touched the $64,000 range. So structurally, you could say we’re not as bullish on-chain.”
Another factor likely affecting a new surge for Bitcoin, is the launch of Bitcoin futures exchange traded funds (ETFs). Instead of buying Bitcoin, the Bitcoin ETFs are actually moving funds into derivative contracts, Woo explained:
“We’ve also had a lot of changes with the ETFs being approved so those ETFs are futures based. They are not actually buying Bitcoin. They are actually buying futures contracts to get exposure to the price.”
A last contributing factor and often overlooked as it seems quite contrary, Willy Woo points to the recent greed and bullish sentiment actually causing Bitcoin to stall at current levels. In order to continue its run, for another year, as he previously predicted, the speculative nature of the top cryptocurrency will have to fade. The analyst concluded:
“The other thing is everyone is very, very bullish right now, and whenever everyone’s bullish, it’s very difficult for the price to run upwards because you get a whole lot of speculative long positions in the markets and that makes it very, very profitable to take the other side and short it and prevent the price rise and effectively take out the long positions. The majority is very seldom right.”
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