In a new interview on business and investment YouTube channel FamilyOffice, Bitcoin analytic and preeminent thought leader PlanB highlights a few signals which tell him that Bitcoin will eventually venture deep into the red. Nevertheless, this will not happen anytime soon and the top cryptocurrency can still grow 100x he envisions.

In a conversation with Angelo Robles, he discusses the current market volatility, NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain, DeFi and even the impact of Bitcoin’s inventor Satoshi reappearing.

PlanB expects Bitcoin to experience a severe bear market despite expert claims to the contrary:

“First of all, I’m one of the few that indeed thinks that there will be a next bear market, a crash like we’ve seen a couple of times before. A lot of people right now are saying that we’re done with the four-year cycle, and we will not have that kind of volatility and that kind of deep bear markets anymore.

I think we will have those bear markets. You can see it in the option prices. It’s priced in at 100% volatility. A couple of months ago when China abandoned [Bitcoin] mining, we went down 50% or more. So we almost had it. We had a crash of 50% right there. So that tells me that 80% [correction] when something really big happens is not out of the question yet.”


PlanB reassures that the next crash is not likely to happen before Bitcoin reaches the price targets of his stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) models. He says:

“I think we will have to go up quite a bit, at least to make the stock-to-flow model values of $100,000 and $288,000. But after that, we’ll go down 80% again… I guess that’s part of the deal, and it’s also part of the greed and fear that’s in investors. People won’t change.

There will be FOMO [fear of missing out]. If we for example hit the $100,000 level a couple of months from now… people will FOMO in, and it will go up. Then after that, something horrible happens: another ban, another China ban or India ban or something. Everybody’s scared again and the fear sets in. So I guess that fear and greed is never going away in Bitcoin.”

To the question if Bitcoin can realize 100x gains in the near ten years, and what would be the best case to realize that, PlanB said that he agrees it is possible:

“While I do not have a magic crystal ball, I do have the Stock to Flow model, which gives some fundamental guidance as where it could go… Investors have a limited market where they can put their money in.. Bitcoin will be more accepted in the next ten years, by countries. More legally and regulatorily secured and the scarcity will grow.

In a way Bitcoin is the perfect store of value, once it gets the legal and regulatory clarity it deserves. And maybe it will also lose its exotic nature and becomes more of a conventional asset, which takes time. It is an age thing… I guess Bitcoin will continue to compete with Gold and Real Estate in particular. Gold is a ten trillion market and Real Estate 100 trillion.

So yes, I really do think that Bitcoin will continue its historical path towards the market caps of gold and real estate [which is 100x].”

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